The second round of Brazil’s presidential elections started with a setback for the Workers’ Party (PT). They were surprised by Flávio Bolsonaro’s (PL) lead and are now looking for someone to blame. However, in recent days, PT has transformed their shock into a campaign, raising concerns within the PL candidate’s camp.
Despite still leading in the polls, the former president’s son has seen his advantage shrink over the week. Political endorsements, with most of the Centrão bloc supporting him, have not translated into a comfortable vote margin. To make matters worse, the PT campaign has regained momentum through three significant actions.
PT’s Counterattack: Social Media, Street Protests, and Positive News
The first action was a counterattack on social media. PT’s main argument, both in official advertisements and among its supporters, is the fear of cuts to social programs. Messages circulating on WhatsApp groups and social media recall how the Jair Bolsonaro (PL) government cut programs like Farmácia Popular, attempting to project a similar scenario under Flávio’s potential government. Flávio’s campaign dismisses these claims as “fake news”, but they have forced the senator to state he would grant pension increases above inflation, causing concern among fiscal experts.
The second action was street protests, particularly the one on Avenida Paulista last Sunday. Mobilizing people in the streets had been a specialty of Bolsonarism, but the left not only organized the protest but also brought in new faces, especially students, to speak, gain prominence, and advocate for Lula. Young PT members, like newly elected federal deputy Ana Elisa (MG), took center stage and led the online confrontation. Lula started making selfie videos.
The third action was a wave of “positive news” that only those in power can generate. The Palácio do Planalto announced a package of five measures targeting micro-entrepreneurs (a demographic typically closer to Bolsonarism), ranging from a debt relief program for MEIs to Pix MEI, which will provide direct transfers to micro-entrepreneurs starting next year.
In a similar vein, the Legislature has aligned with the Executive in an unprecedented manner in recent months. The Senate voted on the PEC to end the 6×1 scale, creating a wave that forced Flávio to change his position and vote in favor of the proposal, one of Lula’s main campaign promises. Another proposal, the PEC on Public Security, is also expected to be approved, with votes from the opposition.
No one in either PT or PL can predict the effects of these measures yet. A Flávio ally joked that the recent street protests only increased the president’s vote share at USP. However, more pragmatic allies admit that this package of benefits could come at a high cost in an election that seems to be tightening in the final stretch. They also note that the main campaign asset from the first round has disappeared so far: the Supreme Court.
Unable to generate new controversies involving Supreme Court ministers, Flávio has two options to prevent another election upset: participate in the debate and focus on street rallies with allies, like the one planned for next Sunday on Avenida Paulista. Neither side has a decisive advantage, so the election will be won vote by vote.
