A new survey by the Vox Brasil institute shows Lula (PT) with 44.2% of the vote, compared to Flávio Bolsonaro‘s (PL) 42.7% in the second round. The difference of 1.5 percentage points is within the margin of error, indicating a technical tie.
The survey found that 9.7% of respondents are still undecided, while 3.4% intend to vote blank or null. When excluding undecided, blank, and null votes, Lula would have 50.9% of the valid votes, compared to Flávio Bolsonaro‘s 49.1%.
A previous survey by the institute, conducted between September 29 and October 1, had shown Flávio Bolsonaro with 48.2% of the vote, compared to Lula’s 45.2%. The new survey suggests a shift in direction, with Lula gaining a numerical advantage.
According to the survey, 76.2% of respondents say they are fully decided on their vote, while 13.4% are decided but may still change their minds. 81.6% of respondents say they will definitely vote, while 5.2% probably will not or do not intend to vote.
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The survey also found that 63.4% of respondents say that a candidate’s endorsement from the first round would not change their vote. 17.2% would follow the endorsement, while 15.2% say their decision would depend on who received the endorsement.
The Vox Brasil survey interviewed 2,100 potential voters in person between October 5 and 7. The survey has a margin of error of 2.15 percentage points and a confidence level of 95%. The survey was registered with the Brazilian Electoral Court under the number BR-09623/2026.
The survey’s sample profile shows that 83.9% of respondents earn up to two minimum wages, while 3.7% earn more than five minimum wages. This distribution may have an impact on the results.
A significant portion of respondents, 68.2%, reported no difficulty voting in the first round, with the primary issue being long lines or wait times, cited by 9.6%. Only 7.6% stated that potential problems might affect their decision to participate in the second round, highlighting the importance of addressing voting obstacles to ensure a smooth electoral process.
